Anticipating and preparing for disruptions
As a leader, it is crucial to ensure that your teams and organization are prepared to face disruptions. Disruptions can take many shapes and can vary in intensity. They could range from minor issues, like routine problem-solving, to major crises that significantly disrupt your organization.
When managing emergencies within your organization, it is essential to define the terms used. Every organization may have its own terminology, so clarifying expectations and definitions is key to avoiding confusion.
Continue reading to discover:
- Potential disruptions on the horizon
- How to assess risks
- Tools and methodologies for anticipating and preparing for disruptions
- The role of artificial intelligence in disruption forecasting
Remember, terminology may vary depending on your industry or even your organization.
This article is adapted from the webinar "Anticipating Potential Disruptions and implementing strategic plans to mitigate their impact," hosted on May 17th, 2024, by Premier Continuum and hosted by The BCI.
What should we prepare for?
The established objectives, the scope of the resilience program, the context of your organization, the prioritized activities and their recovery time objective (RTOs) drive the need for the level of preparedness.
Exceeding your overall disruption tolerance can be catastrophic, leading to significant long term consequences. With today's expectations of continuous availability—for example, in retail with online orders—recovery time objectives have shortened, making advance planning essential. Conducting Business Impact Analysis (BIAs) helps identify your organization’s needs.
Whilst we encourage to focus on preparing for the consequences, such as unavailability or loss of premises, people, key business partners, resources and IT or communication, knowing what is on the horizon will influence and may cater specific actions.
Some examples include:
- Cyberattacks
- Extreme weather events
- Critical infrastructure failures
Risk Assessment
When performing a risk assessment, activities are divided in three categories: risk identification, risk analysis and risk evaluation.
Which disruptions are the most likely to happen?
The first step of the risk assessment is to identify the risks.
A helpful resource to keep up with the top risks and disruptions is the Horizon Scan issued by the Business Continuity Institute. This important annual report provides valuable insights into what professionals predict for the next 12 months.
In 2022, for instance, COVID-19 and cyberattacks were key concerns, along with new risks like IT or telecom outage, regulatory changes and extreme weather events.
Another valuable source is the Global Risk Report by the World Economic Forum, published every January. It includes top risks for the next decade, such as extreme weather events and natural resource shortages.
While not all are directly related to business continuity, threats like artificial intelligence developments and cyber security pose significant risks to operations.
Tools and solutions for anticipating and preparing for disruptions
Early Warning System (EWS)
Early warning systems can be highly beneficial in helping organizations anticipate disruptions by providing timely information about emerging threats. Typically, these systems are issued by government agencies, offering an early indication of potential events.
This advance notice allows for sufficient time to analyze the situation and implement an appropriate response, providing a critical window of opportunity. For instance, in the event of an impending hurricane, these alerts give organizations and the population time to take necessary protective measures.
Media monitoring
Media monitoring is a valuable tool that extends beyond tracking local events and can provide early warnings of potential disruptions. By keeping an eye on global developments through social and traditional media outlets, organizations can gain critical insights that help them prepare in advance.
For instance, during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, those who were monitoring the situation in China had the advantage of securing masks and other essential supplies before they became scarce.
The process of media monitoring involves not only tracking external events but also staying aware of what is being said about the organization. This is particularly important for maintaining reputation, which plays a key role in crisis management. A damaged reputation can significantly impact how stakeholders perceive your response to a crisis. Therefore, ensuring transparency, addressing any potential issues, and fostering strong relationships with clients can enhance the public’s perception of your crisis resolution efforts.
Artificial intelligence
Artificial intelligence (AI) can be leveraged in various ways. For example, it can be used to further enhance external monitoring capabilities by analyzing news feeds, rating their relevance, and helping to better anticipate potential disruptions. AI can also serve as a valuable copilot for your business continuity program, assisting with tasks and decision-making processes.
However, it is important to approach AI with caution, particularly regarding its predictive capabilities. One must carefully evaluate the sources and reliability of the data AI provides to ensure its suggestions are valid and actionable.
"I remember having a conversation comparing artificial intelligence to a student being asked a question in class. Rather than remaining silent, the student will offer an answer. It is essential to ensure that what is being said is actually truthful."
When incorporating AI into your operations, it is also important to plan for contingencies in case the system fails. If your organization becomes heavily reliant on AI, you must consider recovery strategies for when AI is unavailable or underperforms.
While AI can greatly assist, it should remain a supportive tool, not the primary driver of your decision-making process. AI works best as a copilot, complementing human judgment and oversight.
Business continuity plans (BCP)
Business continuity plans (BCP) are essential tools for responding and mitigating disruptions. In most cases, it is advisable to have one business continuity plan per business unit or location. For instance, in the event of a disruption, relocation may be required. However, the appropriate solution may vary depending on the specific needs of each unit and its geographical location. A tailored approach ensures that each unit has a strategy suited to its unique operational challenges.
Business continuity plans are also grounded in a thorough Business Impact Analysis (BIA), which plays a crucial role in identifying and analyzing dependencies. By understanding these dependencies—such as key suppliers, critical systems, and essential personnel—a BIA allows organizations to pinpoint vulnerabilities and develop strategies to address them. This proactive approach enables businesses to anticipate potential risks and ensure that, when a disruption occurs, they are well-prepared to respond effectively.
From a resilience perspective, it is essential to maintain your business continuity plans and strategies, to effectively respond to disruptions of varying durations and magnitudes. These may include communication systems, recovery strategies, and resource allocation plans that are adaptable to both short-term interruptions and prolonged disruptions.
By ensuring that your business continuity tools are comprehensive and regularly updated, you improve your organization’s resilience and its ability to respond swiftly to any unforeseen challenges.
Want to learn more?
To stay tuned with us, we invite you to register for our next Insights Webinars, where we deliver actionable insights for resilience professionals!
About Premier Continuum
Premier Continuum is a leading expert in business continuity and organizational resilience, offering comprehensive solutions to help organizations build resilience. With over 25 years of experience, the company provides consulting services, training, and innovative software ParaSolution, designed to streamline business continuity management and related programs. Known for its expertise and personalized approach, Premier Continuum supports clients across various industries to ensure they are prepared for any disruption – throughout the world.
Visit website: www.premiercontinuum.com
More on
About the author
Marie-Hélène Primeau
Executive Vice President, Premier Continuum inc.
A leader in Business Continuity for the past 20 years, Marie-Hélène Primeau is the Executive VP of Premier Continuum. She is a seasoned practitioner with over two decades in supporting public and private organizations in setting up, exercising, maintaining and evaluating their business continuity and resilience program. Her professionalism and passion to her work always lead to deliverables of superior quality in accordance with industry best practices.
BCI Approved Instructor since 2009, Marie-Helene is involved in national and international standards development in the field of business continuity and crisis management. Moreover, Marie-Helene is the former President of the Business Continuity Institute (BCI) Canada Chapter. She is also a sought-after speaker.
Connect with her on LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/marie-helene-primeau-mbci-cpa
